Black Friday Spending Mixed with Fashion and Beauty Leading the Charge

As Black Friday approaches, the latest predictions and consumer data suggest a nuanced picture for the shopping event. While it continues to be a significant retail period, expectations for explosive growth are muted. PwC UK forecasts that consumers in the UK are poised to spend £6.4 billion this Black Friday, representing only a modest 1.5% increase year-on-year, which falls below the current inflation rate. This figure also remains considerably lower than the record £7.9 billion spent in 2019, indicating that overall Black Friday expenditure has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, despite still being a substantial sum.

Consumer interest in Black Friday has seen a decline, dropping to 46% of shoppers compared to 53% last year. However, those who do participate are expected to spend more, with an average expenditure of £262 per head, a healthy 13% increase from the previous year. Notably, men are projected to significantly boost their spending, with double-digit growth and a higher overall spend than women. Physical retailers, however, may face challenges, as four out of every five pounds spent are anticipated to be transacted online, either for home delivery or click & collect. Younger shoppers represent an exception to this trend, showing a greater likelihood of making purchases on the high street.

PwC’s research also highlights key product categories attracting consumer interest: technology leads at 48%, followed by fashion at 38%, and Christmas stocking fillers alongside health & beauty both at 28%. A significant majority, 68% of shoppers, plan to make a Black Friday purchase for themselves, a trend primarily driven by men (74%) seeking bargains. Women, conversely, are more inclined to buy for their family (65%) than for themselves (62%). Men are predicted to spend £309 per person, a 17% increase from last year and 43% more than women, primarily targeting tech (58%), fashion (40%), and Christmas stocking fillers (23%). Female shoppers are expected to spend £216 per person, up 10%, with tech (39%) topping their priorities, closely followed by fashion and health & beauty (both 36%), and Christmas stocking fillers (33%). This data, based on a nationally representative survey of 2,000 adults, signals promising prospects for the fashion and beauty sectors.

Further supporting the optimistic outlook for fashion and beauty, new data from Mintsoft, an order fulfilment software specialist, anticipates sharp growth in these categories. Drawing on various e-commerce sources, Mintsoft predicts online fashion and cosmetic retailers will see UK shoppers spend £10.3 billion this Black Friday, nearly 20% more than last year. While this £10.3 billion figure differs significantly from PwC's £6.4 billion overall spend prediction, such discrepancies often arise from varying research methodologies, criteria, and periods covered. Mintsoft’s figures suggest an 18.6% surge in online orders overall, with fulfilment teams and couriers preparing for millions of deliveries. The company noted that consumers placed over 2.5 million online orders during last year's Black Friday period, and Cyber Monday was the busiest day, with around 450,000 customer orders dispatched.

Mintsoft’s specific insights reveal that 46% of Britons will be looking to buy clothing, with another 30% searching for accessories and 30% for cosmetics. Adding to this, Centric Market Intelligence, which monitors over 1,000 e-commerce sites, also forecasts a strong event for fashion and beauty, though with some category specificities. Centric observes "designer handbag fatigue," with year-on-year search declines for major luxury bags, although interest in the Hermès Birkin has surged by over 100%, highlighting its status as an investment piece. The top sold-out categories include cosmetics and beauty, as well as accessories like bags (despite the broader designer bag fatigue) and luggage. Demand for smaller gift items also remains robust, with searches for card holders up 39%, and scarf searches rising significantly for brands like Hermès (65%), Burberry (45%), and Dior (25%).

Finally, eyewear is emerging as a critical category, according to Centric. Search interest for Cartier and Gucci eyewear has climbed by 31% and 26% respectively, confirming its growing status as both a popular holiday gift and an accessible entry point into luxury. These combined insights from multiple data sources underscore a dynamic Black Friday landscape, where while overall growth may be moderate, the fashion and beauty sectors, along with specific accessory categories and luxury entry points like eyewear, are poised for considerable success.