Consumer Confidence Shows Slight Gain, But Remains Stuck in a Rut

The latest consumer confidence report from GfK offers a slightly more optimistic outlook than recent retail data, though it maintains a cautious tone for the year ahead. While differing from the gloomier assessment of the British Retail Consortium (BRC) released a day prior, the GfK report doesn’t signal a dramatic upswing in consumer sentiment.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index registered an increase of two points in December, reaching -17. Importantly, all five measures that comprise the index saw improvements this month. However, GfK notes that confidence “remains subdued after a year of no progress,” indicating a persistent underlying hesitancy among consumers.

Breaking down the individual measures, the index assessing personal finances over the past 12 months rose by one point to -6. Expectations for personal finances over the next year also increased by one point, reaching a score of 2. The measure concerning the country’s general economic situation over the last 12 months saw a more significant jump, increasing by three points to -40. Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months also improved, lifting three points to -29.

Notably, the Major Purchase Index experienced the largest increase, jumping four points to -11. The Savings Index remained stable at 24. Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights director at GfK, suggests the December improvement might reflect relief that the Autumn Budget wasn’t as severe as anticipated. He highlights the surprising rise in major purchase intentions, contrasting it with the previously reported slump in Black Friday sales.

Bellamy questions whether consumers are prioritizing Christmas spending and deferring concerns about 2026. However, he emphasizes that despite the monthly gains, the December headline score of -17 is unchanged from 12 months ago, effectively marking 2025 as a year of stagnation in consumer confidence. He attributes this to ongoing cost-of-living pressures, despite softening inflation, and increasing economic uncertainty.

Bellamy concludes with a metaphorical assessment, describing consumers as “a family on a festive winter hike, crossing a boggy field – plodding along stoically, getting stuck in the mud and hoping that easier conditions are not far off,” encapsulating a sense of cautious perseverance in the face of continued economic challenges.