Swiss Current Account Halved Amidst Trump Tariff-Driven Gold Trade Volatility

Switzerland's current account surplus experienced a significant reduction, halving during the second quarter of 2025, according to recent data. This substantial shift was primarily attributed to major fluctuations in gold exports earlier in the year, a direct consequence of the unpredictable trade policies implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump.

As the world's leading hub for bullion refining and transit, responsible for processing approximately one-third of global gold production, Switzerland saw an unprecedented surge in its gold exports at the beginning of 2025. This surge was driven by market participants strategically hedging their Comex positions against the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on gold imports. Consequently, billions of dollars worth of bullion were delivered to the United States from Switzerland, Britain, and other key trading centers.

The risk of such tariffs was alleviated in April when Washington officially excluded bullion from Trump's broader import tariffs. This policy change triggered a reversal, prompting some gold outflows back to Switzerland and Britain from the U.S. As a direct result, Switzerland's current account surplus plummeted to 10 billion francs ($12.6 billion) in the April to June period, a sharp decline from 25 billion francs recorded in the same period the previous year, as reported by the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

The SNB further clarified that while both receipts and expenses related to gold trading rose substantially during this period, the increase in expenses was significantly higher. Specifically, Switzerland's gold export credits amounted to 28.2 billion francs in the second quarter, yet it incurred expenses totaling 38 billion francs, leading to a substantial deficit of 9.7 billion francs within the gold trading sector itself. Despite these fluctuations, total gold exports from Switzerland have remained relatively steady into the third quarter, even with ongoing monthly swings in deliveries to the U.S.

Switzerland's long-standing current account surplus plays a structural role in bolstering the strength of the Swiss franc, as international customers require the currency to settle payments with Swiss suppliers. However, the steep decline in the surplus during the second quarter was not a cause for alarm, according to UBS economist Maxime Botteron, who emphasized a focus on long-term developments. Botteron noted, "There has been a lot of volatility at the start of the year, particularly related to gold – where demand increased in the first quarter because of uncertainty about U.S. tariffs." He further suggested that "Now it seems the situation is stabilizing, so gold will likely play less of a factor moving forward."

Echoing this sentiment, Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, highlighted the traditionally balanced nature of the gold trade between Switzerland and the U.S. "In normal times we tend to import more gold from the U.S. than we export there," Wild explained. "But when people are worried or in crisis situations, demand increases and we export more to the U.S.," underscoring how global uncertainties can swiftly alter established trade flows.