UK Festive Online Spending Hits Record £26.9 Billion Fueled by "Treat Yourself" Trend and AI Influence

UK holiday online spending is projected to reach an unprecedented £26.9 billion between now and December 31st, marking a substantial 4.2% increase compared to the previous year. This represents the third consecutive year of positive year-on-year growth in online spending during the festive period. These insights are drawn from Adobe Analytics data, which offers a robust understanding of the market by analysing hundreds of billions of visits to UK online retail sites and tracking 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories.

A notable trend this festive season is the anticipated shift in consumer behaviour. While shoppers have generally traded down to more affordable goods throughout 2025, they are expected to trade up to more expensive items during the holidays, driven by a desire to "treat themselves and buy gifts for others." The share of higher-priced goods sold is forecast to increase by 15% in November and December compared to year-to-date averages (January-September). Specific categories poised for significant increases in revenue share from higher-priced goods include Personal Care Products (+41%) and Sporting Goods (+36%).

Delving into specific shopping days, Black Friday is set to be the single biggest spending day of the year, with an expected £1.19 billion in online sales, a 6.6% rise from a year ago. This day will kick off a bumper Cyber Weekend, with online spending from Black Friday through Cyber Monday projected to grow 4.4% year-on-year to £3.8 billion, capturing 14.2% of the season's total revenue. Cyber Monday is expected to be the second highest spending day at £963.6 million (up 4.1%), followed by Sunday, with £895.8 million spent (up 2.6%).

Beyond Cyber Weekend, Boxing Day is also forecast to surpass the half-a-billion-pound threshold, reaching £510 million, an increase of 4.6%. Seasonal discounts across Black Friday and the Cyber Weekend are expected to be comparable to 2024 levels, with the deepest discounts for most items occurring over Cyber Weekend. However, Black Friday will see personal care products discounted by 18% and apparel by 17%. For sporting goods, the optimal time to purchase will be Boxing Day, when they are expected to be 15% cheaper.

Even with attractive discounts, shoppers are predicted to increase their use of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services to manage the costs of Cyber Weekend and wider festive spending. Total online BNPL spend for the 2025 season (November 1st to December 31st) is forecast at £3.8 billion, up 5.4% from last year. Black Friday is expected to see £132 million spent using BNPL, a 12.7% increase, while Cyber Monday is projected to be the largest day ever for UK BNPL, with shoppers spending £159.3 million, up 4.2% year-on-year.

The influence of artificial intelligence (AI) is also rapidly growing, with AI-assisted traffic (from sources like ChatGPT or Google Gemini) to retail sites skyrocketing throughout 2025 and building momentum into the festive season. Consumers are increasingly turning to these services for gift inspiration, product recommendations and comparisons, and price comparisons. In September, referrals to retail sites from Generative AI sources surged by 730% compared with September 2024. For November and December, these referrals are projected to continue rising with an expected growth of 410% compared to a year ago, with traffic spikes expected on major shopping days. Black Friday and Boxing Day are forecast to see their traffic share increase by 310% and 750% respectively compared to the same days last year.

Despite the rise of AI, mobile devices remain the favoured platform for online shopping, and their dominance is only growing. The 2025 season is expected to set a new record for both the amount spent and the share of total online spending via mobile. Approximately £15.3 billion will be spent through mobile devices in November and December, up 5.5% from last year's £14.5 billion. Consequently, mobile revenue share during the festive season is forecast to reach 56.7% of total online spending, an increase from 56% last year.