UK Shoppers Ready to Spend Big This Holiday Season Despite Budgets

Shopify's latest Holiday Retail Report 2025 reveals a significant uplift in UK consumer spending intentions for the upcoming Golden Quarter, despite prevailing economic anxieties. Based on insights from 18,000 global consumers and 7,500 small and medium-sized businesses, including over 2,000 in the UK, the data indicates that Britons plan to spend an average of £181 across Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas on seasonal goods. This represents a notable increase from £159 last year, suggesting a growing retail confidence and cautious optimism shared by both businesses and consumers.

This sentiment is further echoed by UK businesses, with a striking 80% anticipating higher sales during this holiday shopping season compared to last year, surpassing the global average of 72%. Interestingly, the report highlights a dual trend in shopper behaviour: while two-thirds of consumers intend to leverage AI for inspiration and deal discovery, a substantial 74% still express a preference for purchasing from a person. Furthermore, shopping habits are becoming increasingly fluid, with 41% of consumers planning to split their purchases evenly between online and in-store channels.

However, the report also injects a crucial note of caution for retailers: while confidence is positive, it should not be mistaken for unlimited consumer appetite. Evidence of this discerning approach is seen in the widespread adoption of spending caps; 63% of UK consumers have set a budget, a figure considerably higher than the global average of 51%, with 39% committed to sticking closely to their limits. This suggests a highly price-conscious consumer base, prompting UK businesses to anticipate that 39% of their sales will come from promotional pricing, with 68% planning to introduce new types of deals to attract shoppers.

Deann Evans, MD EMEA at Shopify, remarked, "As we look ahead to the festive season, retail stands at a moment of renewal." She emphasized that while demand is returning and confidence is stirring, shoppers are more discerning than ever and will be selective with their spending. Evans advised businesses to ensure their holiday retail strategies cut through the noise and capitalize on increased spend. She identified AI-powered shopping and a renewed appetite for discovery as defining elements of this year's festive season, noting that shoppers no longer think in rigid channels. They expect seamless checkouts, effortless transitions, and moments of delight throughout their journey, making it crucial for brands to remove friction and add value before and after the sale to win loyalty.

Delving deeper into the AI element, 66% of UK shoppers are likely to use AI for holiday shopping, primarily for finding inspiration and discovering products. Despite this eagerness, trust remains paramount; 67% of consumers are still wary of AI, and 74% affirm that buying from a person still matters. Shopify sees a clear opportunity here for brands to successfully pair AI-powered personalisation with transparent controls and easy access to human support. The message is clear: while there's scope for greater AI adoption, brands that effectively balance tech-enabled personalisation with human service will gain a significant competitive advantage.

Another promising trend highlighted by the report is the widespread rediscovery of products across various channels, likely fueled by increased optimism and a willingness to spend. An impressive 80% of UK consumers (higher than the global average of 74%) reported being more likely to discover products across different channels, an increase from 70% in 2024. Both physical retail and online discovery channels have seen a 19% year-on-year increase, indicating that UK shoppers are once again moving fluidly between digital and physical spaces. Furthermore, advertising has regained influence, with almost one in three consumers using it more than last year for product discovery. Social media also plays a growing role, with 23% using social media ads more, 19% engaging more with influencers, and 29% leveraging brand and family connections more frequently for product discovery.